Word is that Vermonters can expect Senate President Pro Tempore Peter Shumlin to announce his plans to run for governor in November.

Shumlin, of Putney, has been saying he's 99.99 percent in the race.

His announcement will be sometime before the Nov. 19 forum that the Vermont League of Conservation Voters has planned, so he can be expected to be on the dais with a field of three other, possibly four if former Sen. Matt Dunne of Hartland enters the race by then, of Democratic candidates for governor in 2010.

- Terri Hallenbeck

Labels: governor, Peter Shumlin, vermont politics

Which friend do you feed?

Do not be surprised if there are at least five Democrats in the race for governor by the time you’re stuffing the Thanksgiving turkey.

Secretary of State Deb Markowitz and Sens. Doug Racine and Susan Bartlett are in the 2010 race. Senate President Pro Tempore Peter Shumlin and former Sen. Matt Dunne are on the campaign doorstep.

For hard-core Democratic voters, that’s like having more guests at the holiday dinner table than you planned for. How do you share the spread when you like all your guests equally? And how do you make sure one of them is fed well enough to last through next November?

Democratic campaign contributor Crea Lintilhac of Shelburne is among those who worries about that.

“I am worried about the amount of money that’s going to be spent and what’s left for the general election race,” Lintilhac said. “I wish there were fewer candidates because I think it drains the coffers.”

Vermonters intent on voting for a Democrat face a field of candidates with hard-to-differentiate political views and not-very- dissimilar backgrounds. That brings the decision down to less tangible details.

Lintilhac committed early to Markowitz, even though she also likes Racine and Shumlin. Friends have given her grief about not backing Racine, she said.

“I just sort of picked who I thought was the most capable,” she said, citing Markowitz’s public-speaking skills and connections across Vermont. “Deb is very straight-forward.”

Lintilhac said she will stick with Markowitz through the primary and support whichever Democrat wins for the general election.

Meanwhile, Rep. Steve Howard, a Rutland Democrat, hung his star on Racine. whom he thinks has the strongest base of support. Howard said Vermont Democrats will be making their choices based on which candidate they think is the most electable.

Howard is a professional campaign fundraiser in his non-legislative life. He is working as a consultant in the mayoral race in Newton, Mass., which coincidentally featured five candidates in a preliminary election last month.

Just to complicate things, Howard said, it’s been “torture” raising money in this economy. “People who used to max out are giving a quarter of that,” he said.

In other words, more guests are coming to dinner at a time when there is less food in the pantry. It means candidates have to hit up more people, including first-time contributors, Howard said.

Garrison Nelson, University of Vermont political science professor, noted that Racine and Markowitz have already raised about one-third of a million dollars, already snared some of the most eager donors.

He thinks Shumlin — who said last week he is “99.99 percent in” — is dragging out his announcement so that he has some serious fund-raising lined up when he makes it. “He has to basically drive Matt and Susan out of the race,” Nelson said. “He’s not going to drive Doug and Deb out.”

Shumlin can be expected to draw money from same-sex marriage supporters as thanks for passing legislation this year, but he hasn’t locked up all of those supporters. Howard is among them. “Racine was for us back in the civil-union fight,” he said.

Another indication that when it comes down to it, as Nelson said, “There’s not a lot of daylight between the candidates.”

— Terri Hallenbeck

First forum?

We might get a chance to see the passel of candidates for governor together at one forum for the first time next month. The League of Conservation Voters has scheduled an “Evening with the Candidates!“ on Nov. 19 at Main Street Landing in Burlington.

The advocacy group reports that Bartlett, Racine and Markowitz have confirmed they’ll be there. Shumlin and Dunne have been invited if they’re running.

Lt. Gov. Brian Dubie, the Republican candidate for governor, has told VLCV he can’t make it because of a scheduling conflict. Executive Director Todd Bailey said the group hopes to pose questions to Dubie. “Lt. Gov. Brian Dubie does have some good politics around these issues,” he said.

The forum is a first step toward considering who to endorse in the election, Bailey said. He’s not sure if the group will endorse a candidate in the Democratic primary.

— Terri Hallenbeck

GMP poll finds favor for VY

Last September, a WCAX-TV poll indicated that a majority of Vermonters want to see the Vermont Yankee nuclear power plant shut down. This year, Green Mountain Power Corp. has a poll that says otherwise.

The state’s second-largest utility routinely hires a firm to survey customer satisfaction, GMP spokeswoman Dorothy Schnure said. In July, the company chose to ask a different sort of question, she said.

GMP itself favors relicensing, but Schnure said she sought to phrase the question in an unbiased way. “If 90 percent of our customers said they wanted Yankee closed we’d have to think about that,” she said.

The question posed to 400 customers: Vermont Yankee is asking federal and state regulators for permission to operate for 20 years after its original 40-year license expires in 2012. If 0 means you “strongly oppose” re-licensing and 10 means you “strongly favor” re-licensing, what number along this 0-10 scale describes your personal opinion about re-licensing Vermont Yankee for continued service when it comes up for renewal in 2012?

The results: favor (those who gave a 7-10) 42 percent; oppose (0-3) 24 percent; neutral (4-6) 29 percent; not sure 5 percent.

WCAX poll results last September: When asked if Vermont Yankee should be relicensed in 2012, 52 percent said no, 29 percent said yes and 19 percent were unsure. Of the 400 Vermonters polled, 64 percent say they are willing to pay more for electricity if it means Yankee would close; 28 percent would not be willing to pay more; 8 percent are not sure.

— Terri Hallenbeck

D.C. doings

In Washington, the Senate Finance Committee is expected to vote Tuesday on its health-care bill — the one without a public option. Vermont’s senators won’t have to vote on that bill, though. Before it reaches the Senate floor, the legislation will be merged with a bill from the Senate Health, Education, Labor and Pensions Committee.

Vermont Sens. Bernie Sanders and Patrick Leahy were among 30 senators who last week signed a letter to Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid saying they want a public option in the final bill.

“We are concerned that – absent a competitive and continuous public insurance option – health reform legislation will not produce nationwide access and ongoing cost containment,” the letter said in part.

— Terri Hallenbeck

Have passports, will travel

If you are an elected official in Vermont, you’d better have an up-to-date passport and like rice. Asia has become the popular destination for Vermont politicians this fall.

House Speaker Shap Smith, D-Morristown, and House Democratic Leader Floyd Nease of Johnson spent the past week in Taiwan, a trip that was coordinated and funded by the Taipei Economic and Cultural Office in Boston.

Smith headed a group of legislators from throughout New England. The goal was to strengthen economic ties with Taiwan, so the politicians visited with folks at the Taiwanese Bureau of Foreign Trade, the Ministry of Justice and the Bureau of National Health Insurance. Smith and Nease also expected to tour the Taipei World Trade Center and the Taipei 101 Financial Center, as well as get a firsthand look at Taiwan’s high-speed rail.

In just a few weeks, Gov. Jim Douglas will head to Asia, leading a delegation of Vermont business leaders seeking investors for their companies, according to a news release from August announcing the trip. His trip includes stops in South Korea, Hong Kong, and Taiwan.

—Nancy Remsen

Flu precautions

Before taking off for distant lands, Douglas got his flu shot, he said. He got the vaccine for the seasonal, not H1N1, type.

However, he said he hasn’t changed his hand-shaking practices. Instead he carries and uses frequently those anti-bacterial hand liquids. He also said he doesn’t take offense if someone prefers to nod, rather than shake.

By the way, Douglas said he got his flu shot courtesy of the state employee wellness program. That’s the program that was proposed for elimination during the administration’s unsuccessful negotiations with the Vermont State Employees Association.

— Nancy Remsen

Labels: governor, Vermont Democratic Party, vermont politics, Vermont Yankee

Speculation ends. Republican Lt. Brian Dubie is in the governor's race.

He duped those who thought he must not be if he's not having an event to announce it. He duped those who thought that my postponing his planned appearance this morning on the Charlie & Ernie radio show until tomorrow that he must not be in.

The e-mail from adviser Susie Hudson this morning:

Montpelier, VT – Vermont Lt. Governor Brian Dubie announced today that he will be a candidate for Governor of the State of Vermont in 2010. Dubie was elected to his fourth term as Vermont’s Lieutenant Governor in November 2008.



Lt. Governor Dubie’s statement comes roughly five weeks following Governor Jim Douglas’ announcement that he would not seek a fifth term.



Dubie said, “I have devoted the past few weeks to cross-checking my thoughts with the thoughts of other Vermonters – thoughts about where we are as a state and about the challenges we face. I have measured my experience and my capabilities against those benchmarks and have taken a long look at how we could lead our state forward through difficult times.”



Restoring jobs, restoring opportunity and restoring financial security are at the core of Lt. Governor Dubie’s agenda. “Every household in Vermont knows that you can’t spend more money than you take in. Our state revenues have fallen precipitously. We need to rebuild our base and work to grow opportunity. We must reject deficits. We need to manage and reduce debt. And finally, we need to rebuild our reserves and work to reduce taxes.”



A recurring theme for the Lieutenant Governor is about finding common ground.



“I tell Vermonters that I’m the middle child in a family of six. My mother raised me to be a moderator, a peacemaker. Today, we need moderation in our state. The skill of bringing people with divergent views together has served me well as Lieutenant Governor. Whoever becomes our next Governor, that person will need the ability to bring people together.”



The Lieutenant Governor said he will make a formal announcement at a later date.

Let the shuffling begin.


- Terri Hallenbeck

Labels: Brian Dubie, governor, vermont politics

If you were expecting a decision this week from Brian Dubie about whether he's running for governor in 2010, stand down.

Dubie said yesterday it is likely to be at least another full week before he comes forth with his decision.

Dubie is headed to Alaska on Saturday to see how some Vermont-made wind turbines are faring up there in the tundra. After that trip, he said, seems like a good time to announce his plans.

You can read more about the lieutenant governor and his decision in Sunday's Free Press.

- Terri Hallenbeck

Labels: 2010 election, Brian Dubie, governor, vermont politics

Interesting this period so early in potential campaigns when candidates and their supporters are busy, but most of us are focused on summer and seeing the sun.

Last week, Doug Racine, Democratic state senator with his eye on the state's top job, sent out an email from three lawmakers declaring their support for him because of his support for them and issues they consider important -- not the least of which was enactment of the gay marriage law. At Racine's Web site you can also see proclamations of support from some notables -- such as former Gov. Phil Hoff.

Over at Deb Markowitz' Web site you can see a different kind of list under her "We're for Deb" label. It's a list of people by county. Markowitz, the state's Democratic secretary of state, also is considering a run for governor.

Different strategies. Get some big names and hope that's persuasive when it comes time to rally the troops in a primary or get lots of names and hope that builds momentum.

Susan Bartlett, another Democratic state senator, also has gubernatorial aspirations, but doesn't yet have a Web site that I could find. Wonder what her strategy is?

What will be the most effective way to win the behind-the-scenes game and how important is that to a primary victory?

-- Nancy Remsen

Labels: Bartlett, governor, Markowitz, politics, Racine, Vermont, vermont legislature