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Political notes from Free Press staff writers Terri Hallenbeck, Sam Hemingway and Nancy Remsen


8.03.2009

 

Verge of recovery?

Economist David Hale, a Vermont native and St. Johnsbury Academy graduate, delivered the news to legislators and others from around the region this morning at the Council of State Governments Eastern Regional Conference.

The recession's not over. Job losses will continue. But he said, "We are on the verge of economic recovery."

You and I might not feel it right away. Economists will be the first to sense it, he said.

Hale warned, though, that predictions are precarious. Recovery depends on consumers' willingness to shell out money. If they don't, a "double dip" or "W"-shaped downturn is a possibility. "Right now there's no precise way to predict," Hale said. "Odds probably do favor a consumer upturn."

In other words, just went Americans learned not to spend more than they have, the economy depends on them not keeping too much.

The stimulus package and moves to lower interest rates are helping to keep us out of Depression territory, he said. State governments have used some of that money to create 12,000 jobs this year, he said, and the money will have more impact next year.

Some states, he noted, have looked at drastic measures to raise money. Arizona raised the notion of selling the Statehouse. Gov. Jim Douglas, on a panel with Hale after his speech, pretty much said he didn't see that happening here.

Hale, who will stop and visit his mother in St. J. while he's here, made another prediction that he says is also imprecise. He may someday come back to Vermont and get involved in politics.

- Terri Hallenbeck

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Comments:
Let's see -- Governor Douglas says we must reduce the Vt workforce because it is unsustainable? He says we must change the state employee and teacher's retirement benefit because the stock market has lost so much value?

But wait, the stock market had its best July in 20 years and has been slowly recovering since March!

But wait, Gov Douglas says Vermonters have no need to worry about the Vt Yankee Decommissioning fund because the stock market will recover and grow!

Seems Gov Douglas is good at being 2 faced and saying what he needs to suit his issue!

Jim Douglas - it's time to retire - did you get an early retirement letter? You should have since you have been a state emplyee for your entire adult life.

Jim Douglas - Take the early retirement - PLEASE!
 
The US has borrowed nearly 2 Trillion dollars to 'recover' the economy. That's not including the mystery money the Fed is spending to purchase toxic assets.

The US can only survive financially by monetizing it's MASSIVE debt load.

What that means to you and me is called inflation....perhaps hyper if China and Japan tires of buying our debt.

It's all a matter of math. We don't need rah-rah economists to look in their nonsense crystal balls.
 
Jim Douglas: it's time to go!
 
"Jim Douglas - it's time to retire - did you get an early retirement letter? You should have since you have been a state emplyee for your entire adult life."

So has Bernie. Now get over it.
 
Vtcynic is exactly right! He have borrowed heavily, and with the healthcare fiasco on the horizon, cap and trade, and the ever growing clunker program, taxes necessarily are going to skyrocket. Couple that with lower corporate taxes gathered when companies start leaving the country due to the anti-business stance the Obama administration has taken, the depression is coming!
 
Actually, Bernie has not been a state employee.
 
The recession is over- at least in Burlington- when you can give 30% raises.
Douglas isn't the one who spent trillions on Cap & Trade,Bailouts, (so banks can pay bonuses), Government Motors, 33 Czars, Cash for Clunkers and Obamacare. Why don't you Douglas' bashers put the blame on Obama, and part on Bush.
 
VTcynic is a wise man. The track we are on is a train wreck waiting to happen.
 
"...The stimulus package and moves to lower interest rates are helping to keep us out of Depression territory, he said. State governments have used some of that money to create 12,000 jobs this year..."

Just a couple thoughts:
*At this point less than 10% of the stimulus package has been spent. The economy is recovering on its own. A wise man might be inclined to put the rest of the stimulus package on hold, let the economy continue to recover on its own and mitigate the impact on the national debt.

*Interest rates are artifically low today. Get ready for significantly higher rates as the national debt increases and China doesn't feel inclined to buy more T-Bonds.

*Consider what it will be like when the $1 trillion in new debt is repaid and the money is taken back out of the system.

*12,000 government jobs is not a good thing. Government does not create wealth, It consumes it. Why is this good?

Captain America
 
Anonymous said...

"VTcynic is a wise man. The track we are on is a train wreck waiting to happen."

Not if we get a competent governor.
 
Anonymous said...

"Actually, Bernie has not been a state employee."

Don't confuse the whacks with the facts.

Gops, like vampires, don't fare well in the light of day.
 
The GOP and especially Jim Douglas hate the idea of sunshine in government!

They don't understand why they can't do everything behind closed doors!
 
"Not if we get a competent governor."

Better even if we got a legislature that consisted of members who graduated from college or could tie their shoes.
 
"Actually, Bernie has not been a state employee."

He's been a government leech since 1980.

And I'm not sure he was actually gainfully employed before that, either.
 
Reality and open government just ain't there thing.
 
To ANonymous 10:36a...

I'm sure you will also call Gov Douglas a "government leech" since he actually started on the public dole about 2 years earlier than Bernie!
 
Deal: I'll admit Douglas is a gov't leech when you admit Bernie is.

. . .

That's what I thought.
 
They don't understand why they can't do everything behind closed doors!

Hey, nitwit, follow the news much? It's the Democratic Legislature that chose not to apply to itself the open-government laws it has forced on the Douglas administration. They say they don't have to keep their e-mails, so they don't have to hand them over to the public. But they say the administration does. They also say they don't have to disclose when they ask the Legislative Counsel for legal opinions. They're a bunch of cheap, lying hypocrites.
 
They just aren't that competent. Remember who is in the legislature and the senate - they just aren't that sharp.
 
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