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Political notes from Free Press staff writers Terri Hallenbeck, Sam Hemingway and Nancy Remsen


3.26.2009

 

Survey says: Now's not the time

You may have received an automated call on your phone about same-sex marriage and wondered who's behind that. The Vermont Republican Party is coordinating the calls.

For $200, the party will help coordinate the poll is a given legislative district. You can see the pitch here: http://www.vtgop.org/NewsBack.aspx?guid=f26028be-5147-48cf-bcb2-b881526a388a. The money pays for the polling, says party Chairman Rob Roper, it's not a money-maker for the party.

The calls give recipients three choices for an opinion on the topic:
1. Now is not the time. The Legislature should be focused on economic issues.
2. The Legislature should legalize same-sex marriage now.
3. The Legislature should not legalize same-sex marriage.

One of the calls rang into the home of House Speaker Shap Smith, D-Morristown, who of course supports the same-sex marriage bill. Smith didn't answer the phone, though. His young son did. And Shap reports that his son responded the way many kids have been told to when mom and dad are busy: Now is not the time.

You can't make this stuff up.

- Terri Hallenbeck

Comments:
No, you probably couldn't make it up. Then again, thanks to the Vermont gops, you don't have to.

Good thing Shap's son was on the case. Douglas would have handed you the results on Monday, told you that it was conducted by an independent pollster so you could take his word for it and print it as if it were the product of your own reporting.

Shoot, if Doogie's press release contained a typo and you printed it with typo intact, you could make the big leagues and go to work for fixed news channel.
 
It is clear now to all - Jim Douglas as the de facto leader of the VT GOP and Rob Roper as the Ex Dir of the VT GOP, want to make this a divisive campaign issue - and that's really a shame.
 
Uh, if the Legislature hadn't insisted on taking this issue up during an economic crisis, Douglas wouldn't have this "divise campaign issue," to use, now would he.

Who was the chief driver of this issue in the Legislature? John Campbell of the Senate. Why did he decide to make this his major issue this year? Because he wants to use it in a run for statewide office.

So who's "using" this issue?

Get a clue.
 
Roper is not from VT yet he leads the Vt GOP -

He doesn't seem to understand we have a constitution.

He does not understand we are not a referendum state.

His only real mission is to to divide and conquer.

Next you will see ads from the vt GOP striking fear into Vters.
 
Here are the results from the house districts surveyed so far. Looks like the Governor has quite a lot of support for his position...

Georgia, Fairfax
32% -- Not now. The legislature should focus on economic issues.
38% -- No, the legislature should not pass same sex marriage.
70%
30% -- Yes, the legislature should pass same sex marriage now.

Hardwick, Stannard, Walden
33% -- Not now. The legislature should focus on economic issues.
31% -- No, the legislature should not pass same sex marriage.
64%
36% -- Yes, the legislature should pass same sex marriage now.

Braintree, Brookfield, Granville, Randolph
29% -- Not now. The legislature should focus on economic issues.
35% -- No, the legislature should not pass same sex marriage.
64%
36% -- Yes, the legislature should pass same sex marriage now.

Alburg, Grand Isle, Isle La Motte, Milton, North Hero, South Hero
29% -- Not now. The legislature should focus on economic issues.
35% -- No, the legislature should not pass same sex marriage.
64%
36% -- Yes, the legislature should pass same sex marriage now.

Jericho, Bolton, Underhill
24% -- Not now. The legislature should focus on economic issues.
30% -- No, the legislature should not pass same sex marriage.
54%
46% -- Yes, the legislature should pass same sex marriage now.

Cabot, Danville, Peacham
31% -- Not now. The legislature should focus on economic issues.
34% -- No, the legislature should not pass same sex marriage.
65%
35% -- Yes, the legislature should pass same sex marriage now.

St. Johnsbury
28% -- Not now. The legislature should focus on economic issues.
41% -- No, the legislature should not pass same sex marriage.
69%
31% -- Yes, the legislature should pass same sex marriage now.

Topsham, Groton, Newbury
28% -- Not now. The legislature should focus on economic issues.
44% -- No, the legislature should not pass same sex marriage.
72%
28% -- Yes, the legislature should pass same sex marriage now.

Addison, Ferrisburgh, Panton, Vergennes, Waltham
26% -- Not now. The legislature should focus on economic issues.
39% -- No, the legislature should not pass same sex marriage.
65%
35% -- Yes, the legislature should pass same sex marriage now.

Chelsea, Corinth, Orange, Vershire, Washington, Williamstown
33% -- Not now. The legislature should focus on economic issues.
42% -- No, the legislature should not pass same sex marriage.
75%
25% -- Yes, the legislature should pass same sex marriage now.
Rutland 5-2
34% -- Not now. The legislature should focus on economic issues.
34% -- No, the legislature should not pass same sex marriage.
68%
32% -- Yes, the legislature should pass same sex marriage now.

Rutland 5-3
29% -- Not now. The legislature should focus on economic issues.
45% -- No, the legislature should not pass same sex marriage.
74%
26% -- Yes, the legislature should pass same sex marriage now.

Rutland 5-4
32% -- Not now. The legislature should focus on economic issues.
38% -- No, the legislature should not pass same sex marriage.
70%
30% -- Yes, the legislature should pass same sex marriage now.

Manchester
29% -- Not now. The legislature should focus on economic issues.
31% -- No, the legislature should not pass same sex marriage.
60%
40% -- Yes, the legislature should pass same sex marriage now.
 
If memory serves me correct, I believe the Gov. said, quite emphatically, at his Veto news conference that his people did not poll this issue.

Oh . . . that's right Rob Roper, the head of the VT GOP did. Of course he never shared the results with the Gov. or his staff. How silly of me to think otherwise.
 
Terri, You must have been at the press conference. Is that what Douglass said? If so, his response certainly raises a serious question as to his credibility. In fact, forget credibility, how about his honesty!

And, to anonymous above: in that you have those "critical" numbers one must assume that you are either Mr. Roper himself or one of his staff. No problem with that, just want to ask you a couple of questions. First, do you consider this a push poll? Second, you clearly count those who answered the first question "yes" as being against same-sex marriage. Seems to me that they think the economy is more important right now and they could care less about other issues like marriage.

But then again, if you thought that, you wouldn't be able to say, "Looks like the Governor has quite alot support for his position."
 
Look! The Republican survey shows exactly the result that they wanted! Fantastic!
 
This is not a scientific poll, so who cares what it says?

An objective, scientific poll would have worded the question in a neutral format, not offered two negative responses and one positive.

Like "Do you believe the Vermont should legalize same-sex marriage? Yes/No"
 
Your poll assumes that all those folks who said not now are against the issue...I would call that a leap of faith or maybe disingenuous...
 
What a bogus poll. They were afraid to ask the up or down question, "do you favor gay marriage" because they were afraid they'd lose. So, they included the "not now" option and included the replies with the No votes. The "not now" votes could just as easily been included with the Yes votes.
 
Anonymous 7:46 - Obviously you are in the VT GOP inner circle - probably in the Gov's office - maybe you are Dennise Casey, or Heidi Tringe, or maybe even Rob Roper.

Clearly, no one outside the inner circle would have this info.

If you wan credibility on your polling stats, you should reveal who you really are.


You should also read today's Free Press editorial - says it all!
 
Jim Douglas could care less about whether signing a bill into law is the right thing to do - rather is it right for his re-election.
 
That poll is complete nonsense. There is absolutely no way to determine if those who say "not now" would be for or against gay marriage. To assume that they are all against is a clear demonstration of either the ignorance or the deceitfulness of the Vermont Republican Party. What if they had asked, "Representative Patti Komline, the Republican leader of the House supports gay marriage. Do you think her view represents the majority of Vermonters?"
 
It's interesting that in EVERY town, "Not Now" (implies someday is good) and "Yes" are better than 50% vs. "No" run 30-40%. This is consistent with the MACRO polls and Senator Doyle's Town Meeting polls (soon to be published, but we here it's 55% in favor with 70% completed). I think now is a fine time to pass this & move on.
 
"Look! The Republican survey shows exactly the result that they wanted! Fantastic!"

Look! The Republicans did the kind of poll that the Dems do all the time, too.!

Gimme a break.

Will BOTH parties stop doing polls?
 
This shows the true colors of teh VT GOP - much like the national GOP...

Close minded, divisive, and arrogance.
 
http://rutlandherald.typepad.com/vermontview/
The other survey says - NOW IS THE TIME. The Doyle survey of 12,000 Vermonters - says that, by a margin of 51 to 42 %, Vermonters support equal rights and same sex marriage.
 
A few things here.

1. It is a Survey not a Poll. There is a huge difference. I have to say that this is exactly what the GOP wanted when they undertook this exercise. Use the existing confusion between what a Poll is and what a Survey is to make it appear as though "X" % of people support their position.

2. The SURVEY is actually bad for the GOP which is why I'm surprised it saw the light of day.

3. Look at the towns they chose to release. Look very closely and then think about how conservative those districts are. Do not think that the sentiment in Rutland City or Vergennes on this issue is at all reflective of where we are as a state. This SURVEY was released for one purpose and one purpose only, put pressure on specific members of the legislature for the impending Veto override attempt. I think everyone of the listed districts has a new or otherwise vulnerable D in its seat.

CAN YOU SAY SCARE TACTICS.

We probably shouldn't take anything meaningful out of these numbers other than realizing that the R's play politics on every issue including civil rights.

If you do want to take something out of these numbers though I would argue that a "No not now" answer is actually someone that is more likely to support marriage equality then to be against it. Why answer not now if you are against it when you have that answer readily available to you?

This would mean that each of these conservative districts actually overwhelmingly support marriage equality they just are split on whether we should do it now or when the economy turns around. Not a good sign for Douglas, especially in November 2010.
 
PUT IT TO A STATEWIDE VOTE - Let the voters of Vermont decide.
 
We did. We elected the largest Democratic Legislative Majority in Vermont history to keep the doogie debacle from pulling this crap.
 
Yess, let the voters decide.
 
I would really like to see a statewide referendum - it would then be over with.
 
My legislators did not vote the way I would have so I would have liked to be able to vote on this. I think a statewide referendum, like the state has done in the past, would have been the fair thing to do.
 
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