With Vermont's March 4 presidential primary now starting to generate at least some puffs of wind out there on the political ocean, we're bound to see some polling numbers run up the mast any day now.

Everybody figures McCain's a sure bet on the Republican side and, to continue my lame metaphor here, it looks like it's clear sailing for Johnny-B-Good. On the Democratic side, it's a different matter. Barack Obama's believed to have the upper hand, even if his newly arrived staff in Vermont would have you believe Obama is the underdog to Hillary Clinton. But who rally knows when the last poll done in this state is now five months old.

Assume, however, that Obama is the leader in Vermont right now. If that's true and recent polling in the other three states having primaries that day holds up, Vermont will be the only place Obama wins on March 4. The newest polls in the three states have Clinton up 8 points in Rhode Island, up between 7 and 16 points in Texas and up between 14 and21 points in Ohio.

Pollsters, of course, have endured a series of embarrassments in the prediction department this year, and nothing's a sure bet during this epic, see-saw battle between the two leading Democrats. But maybe that's why Obama just decided to send way more ground troops to Vermont than anyone expected.

-- Sam Hemingway