A lot of left-leaners who didn't like that American Research Group of Manchester, N.H. poll last week that said Republican Rich Tarrant was only 15 percentage points behind Bernie Sanders in the Senate race are going to like what a new Sanders/Democratic internal poll says about the race.
This poll, performed over the weekend, put Sanders where his campaign and the Democratic Party thinks he really is -- way, way ahead of Tarrant. The poll, of 500 Vermont voters, gave Sanders 66 percent and Tarrant 27 percent.
BTW, it also had Democrat Peter Welch ahead of Republican Martha Rainville, 47 percent to 41 percent, in the House race and incumbent GOP Gov. Jim Douglas well ahead of Democrat Scudder Parker, 54 percent to 31 percent. ARG had slightly different numbers on those two races, but the two polls are really light years apart only on the Sanders/Tarrant contest.
Something doesn't add up here, but it's nothing that a few more polls can't iron out. And you can count on more polls to come in the days ahead. Couple of thoughts, though. One, internal polls are by definition suspect because they are bought and paid for by partisans in the contests. And, two, the new internal one said the responses were based on interviews with "Vermont voters."
Usually, pollsters want to makes sure their results are based on "likely voters," people who allegedly have a history of actually voting on Election Day.
-- Sam Hemingway