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Political notes from Free Press staff writers Terri Hallenbeck, Sam Hemingway and Nancy Remsen


9.18.2006

 

Take a number?

A lot of left-leaners who didn't like that American Research Group of Manchester, N.H. poll last week that said Republican Rich Tarrant was only 15 percentage points behind Bernie Sanders in the Senate race are going to like what a new Sanders/Democratic internal poll says about the race.

This poll, performed over the weekend, put Sanders where his campaign and the Democratic Party thinks he really is -- way, way ahead of Tarrant. The poll, of 500 Vermont voters, gave Sanders 66 percent and Tarrant 27 percent.

BTW, it also had Democrat Peter Welch ahead of Republican Martha Rainville, 47 percent to 41 percent, in the House race and incumbent GOP Gov. Jim Douglas well ahead of Democrat Scudder Parker, 54 percent to 31 percent. ARG had slightly different numbers on those two races, but the two polls are really light years apart only on the Sanders/Tarrant contest.

Something doesn't add up here, but it's nothing that a few more polls can't iron out. And you can count on more polls to come in the days ahead. Couple of thoughts, though. One, internal polls are by definition suspect because they are bought and paid for by partisans in the contests. And, two, the new internal one said the responses were based on interviews with "Vermont voters."

Usually, pollsters want to makes sure their results are based on "likely voters," people who allegedly have a history of actually voting on Election Day.

-- Sam Hemingway

Comments:
Posted as a comment in the ARG entry:

I think it will be interesting to see if Sanders supporters take exception to this poll. After all, it has clear political leanings (the Garin Hart Yang Research Group, which conducted the poll, states on its website "Garin-Hart-Yang has a strong record in helping Democratic candidates win in the most difficult circumstances"). Clearly not an impartial source by any means. If Sanders supporters truly have a problem with ARG because of the apparently unknown funding of the poll, anything less than a problem with the Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group amounts to outright hypocrisy. But then, I wouldn't be suprised; "I do not accept corporate PAC money... except from the Fanjuls."
 
"apparently unknown funding of the poll"

...and ARG funding is not unknown by any means. They are subscribtion-based, it says so right on their website. People like Freyne will continue to try to perpetuate this myth, though, because it makes a widely respected pollster sound sinister somehow.
 
Even the ARG poll shows Tarrant losing.

If you Tarrant supporters want to believe the bogus ARG poll, go right ahead! Who cares how badly he loses?
 
"bogus ARG poll"

I thought you hated the Freeps, Freyne, what are you doing commenting on their blog?
 
How close to a representative sample is 500 Vermonters? Any info on the geographic breakdown of where they live?
 
Here is the geographin breakdown. In Bernie's poll, everybody lives in Vermont. In the ARG poll, the candidate (Tarrant) lives in Florida.
 
"Garin-Hart-Yang has a strong record in helping Democratic candidates win in the most difficult circumstances"

That's all you need to know.
 
Even if you believe the ARG poll, you have to come to the conclusion that it is impossible for Tarrant to win.

On July 27, the ARG poll had Bernie with 56% (and Tarrant with 35%). Six weeks later, ARG showed Tarrant improving to 40%, while Bernies support remained at 55%. Bernie's support remained constant, despite Tarrant's substantial negative ad effort. The ARG poll indicates that Tarrants negative advertising is not hurting Bernie's support. As a result, Tarrant cant possibly win!
 
These groups can poll all they want. The bottom line is that these polling groups have their own biases and agendas. The people of Vermont will make their official choice in November. Let's be real, are we shocked that we're seeing something like this?
 
Tarrant's attempt to distort the truth is, indeed, shocking. He has

>>Distorted Bernie's positions with attack ads

>>Misled readers with fake "non-partisan" blogs

>>Distored Vermont's voters viewpoints with fake polls.
 
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