vt.Buzz ~ a political blog

Political notes from Free Press staff writers Terri Hallenbeck, Sam Hemingway and Nancy Remsen

1.09.2008

Wha happened?

The pundits will be plodding through the numbers out of New Hampshire's primary results for some time as they try to explain how they, and the pollsters got things so wrong on Tuesday night, at least on the Democratic side of the ledger.

I got it wrong, too, and so did you, I bet. As part of the Freeps walk up to Tuesday's vote, we identified three New Hampshire towns to watch as indicators as to how the Democratic vote was breaking. The towns we picked were Hanover, a traditionally Democratic town, Wolfesboro, a GOP dominant town, and Milford, which has an especially large percent of independent or "undeclared" voters.

I decided to see how things went in the three towns. Here's what the numbers show.

Hanover:
Obama 2,779
Clinton 1,248
McCain 740
Edwards 459
Romney 260
Paul 105*

Wolfeboro:
Romney 789
McCain 675
Obama 640
Clinton 517
Edwards 250
Huckabee 161

Milford
Clinton 1,092
Obama 1,052
McCain 978
Romney 867
Huckabee 512
Edwards 496

*Paul finished ahead of both Giuliani and Huckabee in Hanover. For a town-by-town look at the GOP results, click here. For a town-by-town look at the Democratic results, click here.

I found a couple of things interesting in these numbers. One, Obama did better than Clinton in a GOP town and, two, McCain was competitive with both Obama and Clinton in the "independent" town of Milford nad the overall division between the Rs and the Ds was nearly 50-50. As for Romney's win in Wolfesboro, that happens to be where he summers, so that may explain his win there.

Finally, while Hanover is a Dem town, it's also a college town, and such places are known to be Obama territory.

Thoughts?

-- Sam Hemingway

posted by vt.Buzz | 5:19 PM |

Comments:

Slick Willie turned on the tears several years ago when caught yucking it up at Ron Brown's funeral. Apparently, Hillary has learned well; when all else goes wrong, turn on the tears and get the naive sob-sister votes. Worked well, didn't it?

# Posted by:

Anonymous | 6:42 PM, January 09, 2008

bubba said...

"Slick Willie turned on the tears several years ago when caught yucking it up at Ron Brown's funeral. Apparently, Hillary has learned well; when all else goes wrong, turn on the tears and get the naive sob-sister votes. Worked well, didn't it?"

I don't think they're gonna take away the right to vote from women in time to bail ya out in time for November, tiny bubbles, and seein' how the clueless-cracker/scum vote ain't what it used to be, you gops are basically folked.

When the third place Democratic finisher in Iowa - a supposedly Red State shrub carried twice - gets 30 percent more votes than the gop winner and the Dem "loser" in NH gets 105 thousand votes when the gop "winner" can't crack 90K, you're toast.

Bummer.

Always a pleasure.

# Posted by:

JWCoop10 | 7:20 PM, January 09, 2008

Sam,
Just once would you please report on a policy or a policy position????

Can you do that, please?

Inform people about something of substance instead of all reporting on who is beating who.

# Posted by:

Anonymous | 10:12 PM, January 09, 2008

Well, little anonymous fella, given the fact that he's reporting on the NH Primary Election, the alleged inaccuracy of the polls on the Democratic side and the supposedly surprising results of said election, by definition, who won and who lost really kinda is the story.

What would you have him report on, Mitt Romney's fair tax plan to make Mitt Romney richer?

The fact that the Democratic loser got 105,000 votes when the gop winner couldn't crack 90K is really quite substantial if ya can find someone to think about it for ya.

It means the forecast calls for pain in gop land.

Then again, perhaps you misread the story.

You're welcome.

Always a pleasure.

# Posted by:

JWCoop10 | 11:29 PM, January 09, 2008

Clinton just seemed changier than Obama did. There's your difference.

# Posted by:

Anonymous | 7:05 AM, January 10, 2008

Republicans want Hillary - she looks beatable.

# Posted by:

Anonymous | 9:03 AM, January 10, 2008

Anonymous said...

"Clinton just seemed changier than Obama did. There's your difference."

OK.

Anonymous said...

"Republicans want Hillary - she looks beatable."

She does, eh? By whom? Cheney? Rummy? Alberto Gonzalez? Harriet Miers?

You're gonna have to find a way to eradicate the past 8 years from the collective memory of the Human Race and dig up the corpse of Ronald Reagan just to keep it close, little anonymous fella.

Always a pleasure.

# Posted by:

JWCoop10 | 11:27 AM, January 10, 2008

blah blah, b'blah blah. bu-bu-bu-blah. blah b'blah. bu'blu'blah blah blah blah. blah blah blah, b'blah.

# Posted by:

Anonymous | 1:46 PM, January 10, 2008

bubba said...

"blah blah, b'blah blah. bu-bu-bu-blah. blah b'blah. bu'blu'blah blah blah blah. blah blah blah, b'blah."

That's your best effort to date, tiny bubbles, but it still ain't evidence.

Don't mention it.

Always happy to help my little friends in the factually-challenged community. Even the nameless ones.

# Posted by:

JWCoop10 | 2:48 PM, January 10, 2008

Anonymous said...

"Republicans want Hillary - she looks beatable."

They're right. Just not by them.

Obama's got a good shot.

They're toast.

# Posted by:

JWCoop10 | 2:50 PM, January 10, 2008

Moveon.org by it's own admission own the democrat party. George Soros has already decided on Hillary so all you Obama backers can turn off the light and go back to sleep.

# Posted by:

Anonymous | 3:05 PM, January 10, 2008

bubba said...

"Moveon.org by it's own admission own the democrat party. George Soros has already decided on Hillary so all you Obama backers can turn off the light and go back to sleep."

Then you should have no trouble furnishing the quote and the evidence serving as the factual foundation for your allegation, right?

That's what I thought.

Dismissed.

# Posted by:

JWCoop10 | 3:24 PM, January 10, 2008

12/9/2004 - Eli Pariser, Justin Rubin, and the whole MOVEON PAC team issued the following joint statement: "In the last year. grassroots contributers like us gave more than $300 million to the Kerry Campaign and the DNC, and proved that the Party doesn't need corporate cash to be competitive. Now it's OUR PARTY. We bought it, we own it, and we're going to take it back".

You're welcome, munchkin.

# Posted by:

Anonymous | 3:58 PM, January 10, 2008

Yeah, and on Tuesday, 1/8/08, brain-dead fred barnes said on fixed news that Hillary's problem isn't Hillary's message, it's the messenger.

Nobody likes her and that's why she's going to lose the NH Primary big tonight and the Clinton Era would be officially over.

Looks like he can't fix elections any better than Mittwit can buy 'em.

Who won that night, shmendrik?

What party controls the WH, little fella? Which party controls the Injustice Department?

That's what I thought.

If Soros is doing anything illegal, why can't they make a case on him.

Soros is a US Citizen Shmendrik. He's also a US Citizen who's not underwriting MoveOn.Org. As long as he's not breaking the law and you, fox noise and the bush administration have no case.

Given the fact that you would if you could, you can't so you have not.

They can say whatever they like, unless you and the little fella can produce a pink slip, you're just spew in' the same bogus gop-slop nonsense you're always spewin'.

Relax, little fella. I've seen your act. Ya got bupkis in every conceivable way and on every conceivable level.

Your chances against me or anyone else with a post middle school education are worse than duncan hunter's chances of carryin' Vermont.

Dismissed.

# Posted by:

JWCoop10 | 4:23 PM, January 10, 2008

Jeb Spaulding for President.

# Posted by:

Anonymous | 5:12 PM, January 10, 2008

jw: "Yaw retahded!"

Bubba: "No, you ah!"

jw: "No, you ah! And so is everyone else on heah."

And so on, etc., etc., etc.

# Posted by:

Anonymous | 6:35 PM, January 10, 2008

Anonymous said...

jw: "Yaw retahded!"

Thank the lord we've got the little anonymous schmuck likes of you to keep us on the straight and narrow.

If you're gonna pretend to quote me, little anonymous schmuck, quote me accurately.

Dismissed.

# Posted by:

JWCoop10 | 9:51 PM, January 10, 2008

Blah, blah, schmuck, blah, blah, shmendrik, blah, blah, dismissed, blah, blah.

# Posted by:

Anonymous | 11:32 PM, January 10, 2008

Anonymous said...

"Blah, blah, schmuck, blah, blah, shmendrik, blah, blah, dismissed, blah, blah."

In other words, laff, ya got bupkis.

Always a pleasure.

# Posted by:

JWCoop10 | 10:10 PM, January 11, 2008

Anonymous said...

"In other words, you've got bupkis, bonehead.

Dismissed.

# Posted by:

JWCoop10 | 1:30 AM, January 14, 2008

I'm rubber, you're glue.

Nyah, nyah!

# Posted by:

Anonymous | 7:00 AM, January 15, 2008

The independents thought Obama had it sewn up so they voted for McCain.

# Posted by:

Anonymous | 9:11 AM, January 15, 2008

Obama.

# Posted by:

Anonymous | 5:41 PM, January 17, 2008

Anonymous said...

"The independents thought Obama had it sewn up so they voted for McCain."

They did, eh? Then how come they didn't do that in Michigan, little fella?

Looks like you've been gettin' some bad fortune cookies lately, little lunatic-fringe fella.

Surely, somebody as plugged-in to the political scene as you must have a theory on how that worked, little dude.

Then again, the Daily Kos told folks to vote for Romney and become honorary Mittwits for a day so as to deplete McCain's campaign war chest, but I'm sure that had no bearing on the outcome.

That'd be like the National Gop-slop machine refusing to back their own duly-elected Senatorial Candidate in CT to help Holy Joe win reelection as an Independent "Democrat" when he's merely "a real, loyal dues-paying Dem like you, little fella, even though nobody in the Dem Party or its supporters realize it, but him and you.

Of course, it's not like Lieberman and McCain have been joined at the hip since NH or anything.

Who knows, he could run with McCain as VP. It worked so well for Gore, in 2000. If only he'd captured that crucial "Holocaust Survivors for Buchanan" bloc, little jebbie and katherine harris would never have been able to steal it.

I'll leave your head in a bag by the side of the door as per our arrangement, little fella.

Pick it up as soon as you realize you're missing it.

Always a pleasure.

# Posted by:

JWCoop10 | 4:15 PM, January 18, 2008