vt.Buzz ~ a political blog

Political notes from Free Press staff writers Terri Hallenbeck, Sam Hemingway and Nancy Remsen

7.25.2007

The politics of gay marriage

I've heard two theories about the politics behind legislative leaders' decision to create a commission to study gay marriage.

Theory A: The commission's work will put the issue out there for the 2008 gubernatorial election. Democrats show that most Vermonters are OK with same-sex marriage, then force Gov. Douglas to say whether he'd support it or not. If he does, he loses people from within his Republican base. If he doesn't he loses moderates without whom he can't get elected. The possible flaw in this theory is that maybe it won't be that clear that most Vermonters are OK with same-sex marriage. Then what?

Theory B: Democratic leaders don't really want to touch same-sex marriage with a 10-foot political poll because they lost control of the House over it in 2000, but their own base is pestering them about it. Thus, creation of the commission allows them to say to the base, see we're doing something. It's not our fault if nothing comes of it.

Perhaps you have theories of your own. Do share.

- Terri Hallenbeck

posted by vt.Buzz | 6:14 PM |

Comments:

Terri,

Your post assumes that Shumlin and Symington are rational leaders. But say they aren't? Say they are truly confused and are just thrashing about without any strategies?

Their goal for next year should be to hold on to their super-majority in the Senate, and pick up 5 or so seats in the House, so Douglas' veto threats are irrelevant. Then they can pass the bills they want on the issues that really matter to Vermonters - taxes, health care, environment, etc.

Introducing gay marriage to the political agenda isn't going to make it any less likely that Douglas is going to be defeated (what are we going to see next year, Ian Carleton running for governor on a gay marriage platform?), and will make it all that more difficult to hold or gain the legislative seats they need to be sure of overriding Douglas' vetoes.

How many of the following Democratic legislators are in favor of gay marriage?

Senator Don Collins
Senator Sara Kittell
Senator Dick Mazza
Senator Harold Giard

Rep. Tim Corcoran
Rep. Bill Aswad
Rep. Bill Keogh
Rep. Sonny Audette
Rep. Reginald Godin
Rep. Ron Allard
Rep. Richard Howrigan
Rep. Jim Fitzgerald
Rep. Kathy Keenan
Rep. Avis Gervais
Rep. John Rogers
Rep. Michael Obuchowski

These are all traditional Democrats whose constituencies don't include many people calling for gay marriage, yet who are almost all solid votes for most of the Democratic agenda. Why alienate good Democrats by bringing up this issue now?

The Democratic party in Vermont is more than Jericho and Windham County - do Shumlin and Symington recognize this? Did they consult with their caucuses before announcing the appointment of the commission?

# Posted by:

Anonymous | 9:41 PM, July 25, 2007

My theory is that this will give them a sense of what the reaction to real legislation might be like, and help them decide whether or not to do it. If it's the same old 27% that screams and yells, with some combination of resignation, indifference or praise from everyone else, we just might see the legislature act on it, not next year, but the year following the election.

Green Mountain Boy

# Posted by:

Anonymous | 9:45 PM, July 25, 2007

Theory C: Peter Shumlin throwing more crap against the wall, waiting to see what sticks.

Seriously, there is really nothing behind this. Just Shumlin doing what he does best - winging it. The only thing new is that he seems to have a wingwoman now.

# Posted by:

Anonymous | 11:09 PM, July 25, 2007

Forget impeachment, the Democratic Party should look into civil commitment for Peter Shumlin. There are no more feet for him to shoot.

Where's Ralph Wright these days?

# Posted by:

Anonymous | 12:12 AM, July 26, 2007

I agree that Symington is so out of touch it's just unreal. She needs to spend a few years working in a factory in Springfield or Orleans, and get to know some working, blue collar Vermonters, and maybe she'll realize Vermont isn't all just genteel Jericho tea parties.

# Posted by:

Anonymous | 12:44 AM, July 26, 2007

They should probably spend their time trying to figure out how to counteract the same that happened with Death with Dignity: the churches started preaching against it even though the majority of Vermonters favored it. (It's time to tax religion)

# Posted by:

Anonymous | 6:25 AM, July 26, 2007

Vermont should legalize gay marriage.

It shouldn't be a big deal.

# Posted by:

Anonymous | 7:46 AM, July 26, 2007

Commission members Tom Little and Nancy Vogele know very well how the issue of gay marriage has torn the Episcopal Church / Anglican Communion apart, maybe not here in Vermont, but certainly nationally and internationally.

Hopefully they can learn some lessons from that experience about the importance of listening to all voices - which is going to be a challenge, since the commission appears heavily stacked with supporters of gay marriage.

At the very least, they should invite Bishop Matano to appear before the commission. While the Catholic position on gay marriage may be unpopular in Vermont, it is strongly-held, including by some Democrats.

# Posted by:

Anonymous | 10:13 AM, July 26, 2007

I'm disappointed that Gaye Symington, the woman whom the BFP called "grace under fire" is now following Peter Shumlin around like a puppy. He's got his arrogant nose pointed in the wrong direction again. What is she, a GAYEsha (Geisha)girl? This is no example of a woman in politics for my daughter!

# Posted by:

Anonymous | 10:46 AM, July 26, 2007

"It's divisive" is another way of saying "I don't like it so it shouldn't happen."

Vermont should legalize Gay Marriage.

# Posted by:

Anonymous | 11:18 AM, July 26, 2007

Why does everyone assume Symington is "following Shumlin around"? Isn't it possible this was her initiative and she convinced him to come on board? Seems to be some sexism inherent in the kneejerk reaction that Shumlin's driving the train.

# Posted by:

Anonymous | 2:24 PM, July 26, 2007

Thanks for sending your comments Gaye (above).

# Posted by:

Anonymous | 3:00 PM, July 26, 2007

Shumlin stumbles, Symington follows. 'nough said.

# Posted by:

Anonymous | 5:04 PM, July 26, 2007

Whatever happened to property tax and healthcare reform? Wasn't Gaye going to tackle those issues?

# Posted by:

Anonymous | 5:05 PM, July 26, 2007

"Why does everyone assume Symington is "following Shumlin around"? Isn't it possible this was her initiative and she convinced him to come on board? Seems to be some sexism inherent in the kneejerk reaction that Shumlin's driving the train. "

You're right. It's possible she'd the leader on this one and he's the follower.

But there's little real doubt that she followed him to the grave on the VY tax for H520. That was his idea, not hers. He insisted. She gave in.

So forgive people for assuming she's following him on this one, too.

# Posted by:

Anonymous | 8:59 PM, July 26, 2007

Ubce again the Dem "leadership" fails to recognize what the real issues are that vermonters care about. Please tell me why Vermonters blindly follow these two over the cliff... it's almost like gullible is not in the dictionary...what fools they are to follow these two bozos

# Posted by:

Anonymous | 9:33 PM, July 26, 2007

why not full equality for all?

# Posted by:

Anonymous | 11:12 PM, July 26, 2007

Here's a novel idea - one that Shumlin advocated earlier this session - impeachment.

How do we get it started - I mean, how do we impeach Shumlin and Symington?

# Posted by:

Anonymous | 3:54 AM, July 27, 2007

This is Vermont - we don't use the ballot box to run off our politicians - we impeach them.

# Posted by:

Anonymous | 3:55 AM, July 27, 2007

Did Chris Stewart, shamed Rainville campaign staffer really post on this blog under the alias "Green Mountain Boy?"

# Posted by:

Anonymous | 5:16 AM, July 27, 2007

I don't know about Chris Stewart, but after this fiasco, I'm wondering why the Dem Headquarters sent Martha Rainville packing over to the other side.

# Posted by:

Anonymous | 12:44 AM, July 28, 2007

Among the other possibilities is that the "leadership is simply clueless and thrusting in the dark for an issue, any issue, to divert attention from the disaster they have made of the last session.

# Posted by:

Anonymous | 12:52 PM, July 30, 2007

Vermonters want taxes and education funding tackled - not gay marriage. We need a new Speaker of the House.

# Posted by:

Anonymous | 11:38 AM, July 31, 2007

Vermonter have NO leadership and the smoke and mirrors of this gay marriage discussion is just revolting.

# Posted by:

Anonymous | 8:10 AM, August 02, 2007

Move on!

# Posted by:

Anonymous | 9:01 PM, August 04, 2007

"'I think it's a legitimate concern,' said House Speaker Gaye Symington, D-Jericho."

From the Sunday, August 12, Free Press, about concerns that there were no members on her gay marriage study "commission" that weren't already in favor of gay marriage.

What a stupid joke! She claims not to realize that everyone on her commission had already made up their minds? The woman takes us Vermonters for complete idiots. Then when she gets called on it she says, "geez, yeah, I can understand that concern."

????????????

# Posted by:

Anonymous | 8:12 AM, August 12, 2007