WCAX says its pollster has determined the House race is close and that Democrat Peter Welch has a small lead over Republican Martha Rainville.

Heck, they could have figured that out just by looking at how much money Peter and Martha have been burning up on ads the two and their parties have been running on the state's biggest television station.

Here's why. According to a perusal of the public file at the South Burlington station, Welch is on track to spend $329,736 on his bid. Add that to the $249,630 his friends at the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee say they're spending at WCAX an ad campaign on Welch's behalf and you get a total of $579,36.

Meanwhile, the Rainville camp has booked $242,115 in ads at Channel 3, some of it subsdized by the Republican National Committtee. Her pals at the National Republican Campaign Committee have spent another $296,175 at WCAX on their ad campaign boosting he candidacy. That adds up to $538,290.

The result: Welch and the Dems have spent 52 percent of the $1,117,656 spent at WCAX in the House race and Rainville and the GOP have spent 48 percent. (I didn't check out the money being spent at WVNY, FOX, WPTZ or elsewhere, but we can assume the ratios are probably in the same ballpark.)

Bottom line: The four-point spread in the WCAX money poll is about what some folks think Welch will win by when the votes are cast on Nov. 7.

Who was it who said money makes the world go round?

-- Sam Hemingway